There is no doubt that time has just been blending together. Since going to a modified schedule in our office for social distancing, I often have no idea what day it is unless my phone or computer are near by. It wasn’t until my drive to work this morning did I become aware of the upcoming holiday. I know this is not how I planned to start my summer, so perhaps I was ignoring the holiday since the pools wont be opening this weekend and parties and BBQ’s are still a ways out. Now I am just imagining being as bored as we have been, but in much hotter weather.
Recently, anybody paying attention could sense that people are becoming a bit looser in their activities. Parks are opening up, the pickle-ball courts by my house are always full, more kids are playing in groups and more houses are having guests as obvious by the increase in cars parked on the street. Traffic is still very pleasant compared to 3 months ago; likely because the amount of people not going to work or those who have realized they can stay home from work have gotten out of the way. I feel it is going to stay this way for a long time.
Nationally, we are in the midst of an enormous debate about what to do next. Their is no clear answer. There are enormous economic consequences of staying closed, not to mention the mental and physical health of keeping people closed-in and interfering with their routines it took years to develop. This virus is taking it’s toll on most of us in ways we could not have imagined 10 weeks ago, and many business owners will never recover from the impact of this shut down. Even entire industries will be forever altered by the stay at home orders; watch what happens to the service industry for dine-in restaurants.
Of course, the other side refers to the health and safety. No matter your fear of the virus, I’d be willing to wager you don’t want to get it. I’m not afraid of the flu, but I don’t want to get that either. But for many, this virus is too much to handle. Those of older age or have underlying health issues see this virus very differently, so I can understand their concerns with things opening without a vaccine or even proper testing that is accurate and easily accessible. Even in our office, we have these opposing sides of the argument.
As I write this, the S&P is down around 12% from it’s high point in February. It should be a lot worse. The true economic impact of this virus cannot be fathomed at this point. Had the FED not signaled every intent to bail out everybody, it would have been. But the word Trillion is now the new Billion. Policies are quickly thrown together, full of loop holes and obstacles that make it hard to monitor and hard to get the money into the hands of people who need it. There is A LOT more of this to come. Unemployment will be astronomical for a long time while jobs that evaporated due to the crisis leave workers looking elsewhere. We do not think the market has seen it’s darkest days yet.
If you would like to discuss what this long term economic outlook will mean to your portfolio, or just have general questions about your situation, please feel free to give me a call.
Phillip Connors Investment Adviser Value Financial Advisers, inc. 303-770-3030
Seeking Value 